The most common talking-point used against Restore Britain is the idea that the party is splitting the right-wing vote. By reducing the chances of Reform UK winning the next election, Rupert Lowe risks ushering in another Labour government. Here's why that argument doesn't work with me.
I live in the constituency of Edmonton and Winchmore Hill. When people here voted for Reform in the last general election, they assumed they were voting against woke excess. Finally, so many of us thought, we could protest against a politically correct culture that is entirely out-of-hand, and vote for a party that puts the British national interest first. But who was the Reform candidate? Neville Watson, a man that supports economic reparations for slavery. We ended up with a Labour MP, Kate Osamor. She's certainly not a good MP, but she has not publicly made any statements about reparations, and is arguably no worse than the Reform candidate would have been. We need to ask how a candidate like Neville Watson was ever selected. Reform UK performs extreme vetting to filter out right-wing candidates, but takes no such measures to keep out woke liberals.
In the Rochdale by-election in 2024, the Reform candidate was Simon Danczuk. Danczuk had been the Labour party MP for Rochdale until 2017. Is that the anti-establishment "radical change" Reform claims to represent? Is it an accomplishment to keep Labour out only by voting in an ex-Labour MP?
Nigel Farage is a good campaigner, but he won't be a good Prime Minister. He genuinely believed in Brexit, but he doesn't appear to believe in much else. In 2010, as the leader of UKIP, Farage described his own party's manifesto as "drivel". A UKIP figure at the time described Farage as "someone who isn't bothered, isn't serious, is a bit of a joker". We've already had one clownish Prime Minister who reached power through charisma alone, and we saw how that turned out. In parliament, Rupert Lowe has submitted 2,204 written questions. Nigel Farage has submitted 20. Farage is a lazy MP, and he'll be a lazy PM.
In the same way that the Tory sleaze of the John Major years directly led to 13 years of New Labour dominance, if the Reform party mismanage their time in office, the result will be catastrophic. Reform will likely serve one single term, achieve almost nothing useful, and be followed by a Green/Labour victory. Farage will likely succumb to business pressure to keep legal immigration high. Farage is desperate for mainstream acceptance and under the weight of negative headlines in the left-wing press, he will largely abandon mass deportations of illegal migrants. The shattered promises on immigration will lead to right-wing voters further losing trust in the political process and staying home at further elections. If Reform prove to be inept and chaotic in power, as I predict they will be, it will totally undermine right-wing chances for a generation. From a long-term perspective, a Reform victory could be far worst possible outcome.
This is not "purity spiralling". Farage has stated that deportations are an "impossibility". David Bull has described immigration is "the lifeblood of this country". The only reason they've changed their rhetoric now is to win back voters they've lost to Restore Britain.
The worry about splitting the vote is a conversation to have in three years time. My hope is that Reform will wither away and cease to exist, making way for the legitimate right-wing party. There is a chance that won't happen. When the election is approaching, an electoral pact could be discussed. If there are some decent Reform candidates, Restore Britain could choose not to run in those constituencies. However, if Reform picks candidates like Nadhim Zahawi, Restore Britain absolutely must stand against them and crush them, regardless of the consequences.
I'm not voting for the least-worst option anymore.